Research: Why Breathing Is So Effective at Reducing Stress
When U.S. Marine Corp Officer Jake D.’s vehicle drove over an explosive device in Afghanistan, he looked down to see his legs almost completely severed below the knee. At that moment, he remembered a breathing exercise he had learned in a book for young officers. Thanks to that exercise, he was able to stay calm enough to check on his men, give orders to call for help, tourniquet his own legs, and remember to prop them up before falling unconscious. Later, he was told that had he not done so, he would have bled to death ....
Measurement-based evaluation of Google/Apple Exposure Notification API for proximity detection in a light-rail tram
We report on the results of a Covid-19 contact tracing app measurement study carried out on a standard design of European commuter tram. Our measurements indicate that in the tram there is little correlation between Bluetooth received signal strength and distance between handsets. We applied the detection rules used by the Italian, Swiss and German apps to our measurement data and also characterised the impact on performance of changes in the parameters used in these detection rules. We find that the Swiss and German detection rules trigger no exposure notifications on our data, while the Italian detection rule generates a true positive rate of 50% and a false positive rate of 50%. Our analysis indicates that the performance of such detection rules is similar to that of triggering notifications by randomly selecting from the participants in our experiments, regardless of proximity.
Singapore charts its way to digital future for trade
Noting that Singapore had become successful by “connecting ourselves with the world”, Mr Lee said that while global trade flows would be diverted or even dry up, new channels would arise, requiring the country to “prepare for a very different future”. Singapore’s policymakers see digitalisation of trade as one way to do this, taking advantage of the increasing adoption of ecommerce; the use of digital technology by banks in trade finance; and the provision of other cross-border services through mobile apps and other platforms.
The Confessions of Marcus Hutchins, the Hacker Who Saved the Internet
At 22, he single-handedly put a stop to the worst cyberattack the world had ever seen. Then he was arrested by the FBI. This is his untold story.
Words of Estimative Probability
This classic piece on the need for precision in intelligence judgments was originally classified Confidential and published in the Fall 1964 number of Studies in Intelligence. Although Sherman Kent's efforts to quantify what were essentially qualitative judgments did not prevail, the essay's general theme remains important today.
Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecas...
The heuristics-and-biases research program highlights reasons for expecting people to be poor intuitive forecasters. This article tests the power of a cognitive-debiasing training module (“CHAMPS KNOW”) to improve probability judgments in a four-year series of geopolitical forecasting tournaments sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community. Although the training lasted less than one hour, it consistently improved accuracy (Brier scores) by 6 to 11% over the control condition. Cognitive ability and practice also made largely independent contributions to predictive accuracy. Given the brevity of the training tutorials and the heterogeneity of the problems posed, the observed effects are likely to be lower-bound estimates of what could be achieved by more intensive interventions. Future work should isolate which prongs of the multipronged CHAMPS KNOW training were most effective in improving judgment on which categories of problems.